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Burak Buyukdemir

Please stop sending 5-year projections


Brainwaves by Burak Büyükdemir

Field notes from 26 years of investing in early-stage startups.

March 25, 2026

Please stop sending 5-year projections

· · ·

Quick founder note from the investor side.

Please stop sending 5-year projections.

Not because you're wrong. Because everyone knows they're fiction.

Markets change. Products pivot. Pricing shifts. Competition moves. So a "2030 revenue line" doesn't build trust.

It does the opposite.

What investors actually want instead

If you want to look serious, send a model that proves you understand your business today and the next 12 months:

1) A clear 12-month plan (expenses)

  • Hiring plan
  • Salaries
  • Marketing spend
  • Infrastructure / tools
  • Operating costs

Every dollar accounted for.

2) Unit economics

  • What it costs to acquire a customer (CAC)
  • What you earn per customer
  • How that changes over time

3) Your funnel math

  • Leads → demos → customers
  • Conversion rates
  • What you're improving and why

4) Burn + runway

  • Monthly burn rate
  • How many months you have
  • What happens if revenue is slower than expected

Red flags that make investors skip

  • Perfect hockey sticks
  • "Market share grows forever"
  • "Competition stays still"
  • No real cost breakdown
  • Assumptions hidden in a black box

A simple rule I use

"If you can't explain your numbers for the next 12 months, you definitely can't predict the next 5 years."

If you're fundraising right now, do this today:

  • Build a clean 12-month plan
  • Show the math
  • Explain assumptions
  • Make it readable

That alone will put you ahead of most decks.

· · ·
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Until next time,

Burak

Founder & Solo GP, Startupist Ventures Fund

Burak Büyükdemir

Burak Büyükdemir

Founder & Solo GP, Startupist Ventures Fund · Startup Istanbul

Founder of Etohum & Startup Istanbul. Solo GP at Startupist Ventures. 26+ years building startup ecosystems across 170 countries.

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Startup Istanbul · Istanbul, Turkey

Burak Buyukdemir

Entrepreneur, VC, and storyteller. I invest in early-stage startups worldwide, share candid lessons from 20+ years in tech, and spotlight founders shaping the future. Join 100,000+ readers each week.

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