Brainwaves by Burak Büyükdemir
Field notes from 26 years of investing in early-stage startups.
March 25, 2026
Please stop sending 5-year projections
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Quick founder note from the investor side.
Please stop sending 5-year projections.
Not because you're wrong. Because everyone knows they're fiction.
Markets change. Products pivot. Pricing shifts. Competition moves. So a "2030 revenue line" doesn't build trust.
It does the opposite.
What investors actually want instead
If you want to look serious, send a model that proves you understand your business today and the next 12 months:
1) A clear 12-month plan (expenses)
- Hiring plan
- Salaries
- Marketing spend
- Infrastructure / tools
- Operating costs
Every dollar accounted for.
2) Unit economics
- What it costs to acquire a customer (CAC)
- What you earn per customer
- How that changes over time
3) Your funnel math
- Leads → demos → customers
- Conversion rates
- What you're improving and why
4) Burn + runway
- Monthly burn rate
- How many months you have
- What happens if revenue is slower than expected
Red flags that make investors skip
- Perfect hockey sticks
- "Market share grows forever"
- "Competition stays still"
- No real cost breakdown
- Assumptions hidden in a black box
A simple rule I use
"If you can't explain your numbers for the next 12 months, you definitely can't predict the next 5 years."
If you're fundraising right now, do this today:
- Build a clean 12-month plan
- Show the math
- Explain assumptions
- Make it readable
That alone will put you ahead of most decks.
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